Here’s an in-depth exploration of three key free-agent deals that the Houston Astros could have benefitted from handing out this offseason. These hypothetical signings will be analyzed based on team fit, positional needs, financial feasibility, and the potential impact on the Astros’ 2024 season. We’ll also discuss why these deals were missed opportunities for Houston and how they could have helped maintain or even extend their competitive window as World Series contenders.
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Introduction: Astros’ Quiet Offseason
The Houston Astros have been one of baseball’s most successful franchises over the last decade, earning multiple World Series titles and consistently contending in the playoffs. However, this offseason has been relatively quiet for Houston, as the front office opted against making major free-agent splashes.
While the Astros’ roster is still strong, there are areas where upgrades could have been made to address lingering needs. Let’s examine three free-agent deals that would have fit the Astros’ objectives and strengthened their roster.
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1. Aaron Nola to Bolster the Starting Rotation
Contract Signed: 7 years, $172 million (Philadelphia Phillies)
Why the Astros Should Have Made This Deal: The Astros’ starting rotation has been a hallmark of their success, but cracks are beginning to show. With Justin Verlander traded back to the team midseason but already 41 years old, and Lance McCullers Jr. frequently injured, Houston’s once-dominant rotation needs a reliable workhorse. Aaron Nola, one of the most durable and consistent starters in baseball, would have been the perfect addition.
Over the last few seasons, Nola has proven to be an innings-eater and strikeout machine. His ability to perform in the postseason would have also complemented Houston’s win-now mentality. Adding Nola would give the Astros a formidable 1-2 punch alongside Framber Valdez, with Cristian Javier and Hunter Brown rounding out the rotation.
Impact: Nola’s consistency and durability would have provided stability, reducing the wear and tear on the bullpen. His track record as a top-tier starter would also keep the Astros competitive against AL powerhouses like the Rangers and Mariners.
Why It Didn’t Happen: Houston may have balked at the long-term commitment, as they’ve generally avoided lengthy contracts for pitchers.
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2. Josh Hader to Strengthen the Bullpen
Contract Signed: 3 years, $54 million (San Diego Padres)
Why the Astros Should Have Made This Deal: The Astros’ bullpen was a strength in 2022 and 2023, but as relievers tend to be volatile year over year, adding an elite closer like Josh Hader would have solidified the late innings. Ryan Pressly has been excellent in the closer role, but pairing him with Hader could have created one of the most dominant bullpen duos in baseball. This would also allow Houston to deploy Pressly in high-leverage situations earlier in games when necessary, maximizing flexibility.
Hader’s electric stuff and ability to shut down opponents in high-stakes situations would have been invaluable for a team with championship aspirations. Additionally, his playoff experience would fit seamlessly with the Astros’ battle-tested roster.
Impact: Hader would have shortened games for the Astros, turning the 7th through 9th innings into a nightmare for opposing hitters. This move would have also given Houston the edge in closely contested postseason matchups.
Why It Didn’t Happen: The Astros may have been reluctant to allocate such a significant portion of their budget to a reliever, especially with bullpen arms already performing well in 2023.
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3. Cody Bellinger for a Dynamic Outfield Upgrade
Contract Signed: 1 year, $25 million (Chicago Cubs)
Why the Astros Should Have Made This Deal: The Astros’ outfield is solid but not spectacular, especially with Michael Brantley’s age and health concerns limiting his production. Cody Bellinger’s resurgence in 2023 with the Cubs made him one of the most intriguing free agents on the market. His combination of power, speed, and defensive prowess would have fit perfectly in Houston’s outfield.
A former MVP, Bellinger could slot in as the starting center fielder or left fielder, depending on the team’s needs. His left-handed bat would have added balance to Houston’s predominantly right-handed lineup, making it even more dangerous. Furthermore, his ability to play first base could have given the Astros additional flexibility in case of injuries.
Impact: Bellinger’s versatility and five-tool potential would have provided Houston with both offensive and defensive upgrades. His presence in the lineup would also give opposing pitchers fewer opportunities to exploit weaknesses.
Why It Didn’t Happen: Houston may have hesitated to offer a high-value, short-term deal, or they may have doubted Bellinger’s ability to sustain his rebound performance.
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Other Missed Opportunities
While these three deals represent the most significant opportunities, there were other free agents who could have helped the Astros, such as:
J.D. Martinez (Signed with the Dodgers): A veteran slugger who could have been an impactful designated hitter.
Jordan Montgomery (Signed with the Cardinals): A left-handed starter who would have added depth to the rotation.
Eduardo Rodriguez (Signed with the Tigers): Another rotation option to replace Verlander’s innings.
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Why the Astros Should Have Been Aggressive
The American League has become increasingly competitive, especially in the AL West. The Texas Rangers are fresh off a World Series win, and the Seattle Mariners continue to improve. The Astros, while still contenders, must recognize that standing pat is not enough to stay ahead. Aggressively pursuing top free agents would have helped maintain their edge and signaled their commitment to dominance.
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What’s Next for Houston?
Although the Astros missed out on these deals, the offseason is not yet over. Trades could be a viable alternative for upgrading the roster. Additionally, midseason acquisitions have often been a strength of the Astros’ front office, as evidenced by the Verlander trade in 2022.
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Conclusion
The Astros remain one of the most talented teams in baseball, but this offseason could have been an opportunity to solidify their status as perennial contenders. Deals for Aaron Nola, Josh Hader, and Cody Bellinger would have addressed key areas of need and added significant firepower to an already formidable roster. While the front office may have opted for a more conservative approach, the missed opportunities leave room for speculation about what could have been. As the 2024 season approaches, Houston will need to rely on its existing core while keeping an eye on potential midseason moves to stay ahead in the ultra-competitive American League.
